U.S. banks could face as much as $500 billion in deposit outflows to stablecoins by the end of 2028, according to a new report from Standard Chartered which frames stablecoin adoption as a growing structural risk to the traditional banking system.
The estimate represents roughly one-third of the $2 trillion stablecoin market cap that the bank’s analysts expect by the end of the decade, and about half of the $1 trillion in emerging market bank deposits that Standard Chartered has previously projected could migrate into U.S.-dollar stablecoins over the same period.
Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, said the risks have become more visible as payments and other core banking activities increasingly migrate toward blockchain-based alternatives. He also pointed to delays surrounding the U.S. Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, known as the Clarity Act.
“This issue has pitted big banks against Coinbase,” Kendrick wrote. While Coinbase initially withdrew support for the bill, noting that its latest draft would bury a major incentive to hold and issue stablecoins, Bank of America’s CEO warned that stablecoins could attract up to $6 trillion in deposits from banks if allowed to pay interest.